Machine Learning and AI Foundations: Prediction, Causation, and Statistical Inference
2h 3mIntermediate2022-03-18
Authors

Keith McCormick
Data Miner, Trainer, Speaker, Author
Course details
In the world of data science, machine learning and statistics are often lumped together, but they serve different purposes, and being versed in one doesn’t mean expertise in the other. In fact, applying a statistical approach to a machine learning problem, or vice versa, can lead to confusion more than elucidation. In this course, Keith McCormick covers how stats and machine learning are different, when to use each one, and how to use all the tools at your disposal to be clear and persuasive when you share your results. He covers topics like: Why correlation is insufficient evidence of causation; the difference between experimental and observational data; and the differences between traditional statistics and Bayesian statistics. Keith also looks at causality, a tricky topic when it comes to using statistics and machine learning to prove something causes something else. If you build machine learning models, run statistical analyses—or especially if you do both, this course is for you.
Skills covered
Machine LearningArtificial Intelligence FoundationsFoundationsArtificial Intelligence (AI)
Concepts
Introduction
- Prediction, causation, and statistical inference
What Is a Casual Model
- Lady tasting tea
- Why causation matters in a business setting
- What is a causal model
Healthy Skepticism about Our Data and Our Results
- Skepticism about data - Truman 1948 Election Poll
- Skepticism about results - Is that really the best predictor
- Skepticism about causes - Is X really causing Y
Correlation Does Not Imply Causation
- What is a strong correlation
- Pearson on correlation and causation
- Correlation and regression
- Challenge - What is causing what
- Solution - What is causing what
Prediction and Proof in Statistics
- Using probability to measure uncertainty
- p-value review
- Hypothesis testing checklist
- Taleb on normality, mediocristan, and extremistan
- Challenge - Evaluate significant finding
- Solution - Evaluate significant finding
Deduction and Induction
- What are induction and deduction
- Hume on induction
- Popper on induction and falsification
- Taleb on induction
- Counterfactuals - Pearl on induction and causality
Prediction and Proof in Data Mining
- Data mining vs. data dredging
- Train Test - What can go wrong
- A B testing during the evaluation phase
The Two Cultures - Contrasting Statistics and Data Mining
- The Two Cultures
- Explain vs. predict
- Comparing CRISP-DM and the scientific method
- Applying the two methods at work
Conclusion
- Review